Insights / us
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.US05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.32%
P05–P95 span
9.98%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
-5.97%
Outer 90%
4/9(44%)
Middle 50%
0/9(0%)
Above median
0/9(0%)
Below median
9/9(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.75%P25: -2.51%P50: -0.32%P75: 1.55%P95: 5.24%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.