Insights / us
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.US04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.63%
P05–P95 span
8.73%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.38%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.33%P25: -0.44%P50: 0.63%P75: 2.24%P95: 6.40%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 34.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.