IBM

International Business Machines CorporationUS05/21/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

-1.17%

P05–P95 span

19.98%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.60

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+7.16%

Outer 90%

5/10(50%)

Middle 50%

1/10(10%)

Above median

8/10(80%)

Below median

2/10(20%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -11.68%P25: -4.30%P50: -1.17%P75: 2.24%P95: 8.30%

Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 15.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.