Insights / us
IBM
International Business Machines CorporationUS05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.65%
P05–P95 span
13.63%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.63%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.19%P25: -3.76%P50: -1.65%P75: 0.10%P95: 3.44%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.