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IBM
International Business Machines CorporationUS04/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.53%
P05–P95 span
9.11%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.13%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.10%P25: -0.01%P50: 1.53%P75: 3.68%P95: 7.01%
Computed at: 04/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.