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IBM
International Business Machines CorporationUS04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.30%
P05–P95 span
9.54%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.39%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.99%P25: -2.19%P50: -0.30%P75: 1.82%P95: 5.54%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 9.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.