Insights / us
IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.84%
P05–P95 span
15.92%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.65%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.79%P25: -3.79%P50: -0.84%P75: 1.10%P95: 5.13%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.