Insights / us
IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.US04/30/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.56%
P05–P95 span
13.78%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.09%
Outer 90%
0/10(0%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.06%P25: -5.88%P50: -2.56%P75: -0.37%P95: 1.72%
Computed at: 05/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.