Insights / us
IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.US04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.62%
P05–P95 span
10.88%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.96%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.24%P25: -0.51%P50: 0.62%P75: 1.95%P95: 5.64%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 28.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.