Insights / us
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.43%
P05–P95 span
7.38%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.77%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.22%P25: -2.88%P50: -1.43%P75: 0.02%P95: 2.16%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.