Insights / us
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.US04/30/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.24%
P05–P95 span
10.93%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.94%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.58%P25: -1.00%P50: 0.24%P75: 1.95%P95: 6.35%
Computed at: 05/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.