Insights / us
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.US04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.36%
P05–P95 span
14.55%
Neighbors
22
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.70%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.65%P25: -0.71%P50: 1.36%P75: 2.95%P95: 9.90%
Computed at: 04/17/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.