Insights / us
HSY
The Hershey CompanyUS04/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.17%
P05–P95 span
13.55%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.13%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.22%P25: -0.67%P50: 1.17%P75: 3.56%P95: 9.33%
Computed at: 04/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.