Insights / us
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.US05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.75%
P05–P95 span
8.79%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.28%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.05%P25: -0.48%P50: 0.75%P75: 2.50%P95: 4.73%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.