Insights / us
HIG
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.05%
P05–P95 span
13.18%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.44%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.92%P25: -2.53%P50: -1.05%P75: 0.72%P95: 7.26%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.