Insights / us
HIG
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.US04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.15%
P05–P95 span
9.69%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.97%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.32%P25: -4.00%P50: -2.15%P75: -0.59%P95: 2.38%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 39.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.