Insights / us
HAL
Halliburton CompanyUS04/15/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.46%
P05–P95 span
9.63%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.68%
Outer 90%
1/10(10%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.87%P25: -0.85%P50: 0.46%P75: 1.49%P95: 5.75%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.