Insights / us
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.US04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.08%
P05–P95 span
9.83%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.12%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.29%P25: -1.24%P50: 0.08%P75: 1.67%P95: 6.54%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 36.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.