Insights / us
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.US04/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.36%
P05–P95 span
10.63%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.13%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.60%P25: -1.14%P50: 0.36%P75: 2.25%P95: 6.03%
Computed at: 04/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.