Insights / us
FICO
Fair Isaac CorporationUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.56%
P05–P95 span
16.88%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+1.15%
Outer 90%
3/4(75%)
Middle 50%
2/4(50%)
Above median
3/4(75%)
Below median
1/4(25%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.01%P25: -1.96%P50: 0.56%P75: 3.85%P95: 7.87%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.