Insights / us
FICO
Fair Isaac CorporationUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.96%
P05–P95 span
12.08%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.61%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.59%P25: -1.13%P50: 0.96%P75: 2.95%P95: 5.48%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.