Insights / us
FICO
Fair Isaac CorporationUS05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.80%
P05–P95 span
11.01%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.47%
Outer 90%
1/10(10%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.91%P25: -2.59%P50: -0.80%P75: 1.56%P95: 5.10%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.