Insights / us
FE
FirstEnergy Corp.US05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.05%
P05–P95 span
14.24%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.35%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.72%P25: -1.65%P50: -0.05%P75: 1.90%P95: 6.52%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.