Insights / us
FE
FirstEnergy Corp.US04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.36%
P05–P95 span
9.75%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.67%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.61%P25: -4.25%P50: -2.36%P75: -0.63%P95: 1.14%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 39.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.