Insights / us
FAST
Fastenal CompanyUS05/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.54%
P05–P95 span
13.70%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.55%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.85%P25: -1.36%P50: 0.54%P75: 2.65%P95: 5.86%
Computed at: 05/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.