Insights / us
FAST
Fastenal CompanyUS04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.96%
P05–P95 span
16.08%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.89%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.78%P25: -4.91%P50: -1.96%P75: -0.08%P95: 4.31%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 36.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.