Insights / us
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.US05/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.45%
P05–P95 span
10.88%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.71%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.27%P25: -1.47%P50: 0.45%P75: 2.44%P95: 5.61%
Computed at: 05/15/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 19.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.