Insights / us
EXC
Exelon CorporationUS04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.31%
P05–P95 span
23.45%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.53
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.46%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -18.13%P25: -7.85%P50: -2.31%P75: 0.10%P95: 5.32%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 18.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.