Insights / us
ESS
Essex Property Trust, Inc.US06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.01%
P05–P95 span
18.27%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.63
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
-0.21%
Outer 90%
5/5(100%)
Middle 50%
4/5(80%)
Above median
4/5(80%)
Below median
1/5(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.08%P25: -1.77%P50: 0.01%P75: 1.68%P95: 7.19%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.