Insights / us
ESS
Essex Property Trust, Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.31%
P05–P95 span
12.88%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.58%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.24%P25: -1.24%P50: 0.31%P75: 1.95%P95: 5.63%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.