Insights / us
ESS
Essex Property Trust, Inc.US05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.95%
P05–P95 span
14.11%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.13%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.91%P25: -1.52%P50: 0.95%P75: 3.35%P95: 7.20%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.