Insights / us
ESS
Essex Property Trust, Inc.US04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.12%
P05–P95 span
9.65%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+5.42%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.18%P25: -1.97%P50: -0.12%P75: 1.43%P95: 4.47%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 22.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.