Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.09%
P05–P95 span
10.76%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+3.92%
Outer 90%
5/9(56%)
Middle 50%
1/9(11%)
Above median
6/9(67%)
Below median
3/9(33%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.49%P25: -1.87%P50: 0.09%P75: 1.88%P95: 4.27%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.