Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.44%
P05–P95 span
11.55%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.48%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.89%P25: -2.57%P50: -0.44%P75: 1.21%P95: 6.65%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.