Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+3.21%
P05–P95 span
15.72%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.41%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.31%P25: 0.64%P50: 3.21%P75: 6.70%P95: 12.41%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.