Insights / us
ERIE
Erie Indemnity CompanyUS04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.89%
P05–P95 span
12.33%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-12.22%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.20%P25: -0.91%P50: 0.89%P75: 2.54%P95: 6.13%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 33.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.