Insights / us
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.US05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.05%
P05–P95 span
12.46%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.76%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.20%P25: -1.89%P50: -0.05%P75: 1.71%P95: 7.26%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.