Insights / us
DOW
Dow Inc.US05/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.27%
P05–P95 span
19.93%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.60
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.00%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -14.89%P25: -4.00%P50: -1.27%P75: 0.80%P95: 5.04%
Computed at: 05/08/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.