Insights / us
DOW
Dow Inc.US04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.71%
P05–P95 span
13.46%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-9.10%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.05%P25: -4.11%P50: -1.71%P75: 0.24%P95: 5.41%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 32.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.