Insights / us
DIS
The Walt Disney CompanyUS05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.51%
P05–P95 span
8.81%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.25%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
10/10(100%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.52%P25: -1.00%P50: 0.51%P75: 1.77%P95: 4.28%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.