Insights / us
CVX
Chevron CorporationUS05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.15%
P05–P95 span
14.84%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.10%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.79%P25: -2.17%P50: -0.15%P75: 1.67%P95: 7.05%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.