Insights / us
COP
ConocoPhillipsUS05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.27%
P05–P95 span
10.66%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+1.09%
Outer 90%
6/9(67%)
Middle 50%
2/9(22%)
Above median
9/9(100%)
Below median
0/9(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.77%P25: -0.93%P50: 0.27%P75: 1.94%P95: 5.88%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.