Insights / us
COF
Capital One Financial CorporationUS05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.58%
P05–P95 span
15.27%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.56%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.49%P25: -2.35%P50: -0.58%P75: 1.20%P95: 6.78%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.