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CMS
CMS Energy CorporationUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.93%
P05–P95 span
12.52%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.88%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.47%P25: -0.88%P50: 0.93%P75: 2.68%P95: 8.05%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.