Insights / us
CINF
Cincinnati Financial CorporationUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.06%
P05–P95 span
11.56%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.57%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.47%P25: -1.54%P50: -0.06%P75: 2.23%P95: 7.08%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.