Insights / us
CINF
Cincinnati Financial CorporationUS05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.88%
P05–P95 span
23.43%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.53
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.31%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -17.42%P25: -5.18%P50: -1.88%P75: -0.02%P95: 6.01%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 19.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.