Insights / us
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.US06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.74%
P05–P95 span
13.42%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
-9.33%
Outer 90%
0/4(0%)
Middle 50%
0/4(0%)
Above median
0/4(0%)
Below median
4/4(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.75%P25: -1.35%P50: 0.74%P75: 2.92%P95: 6.67%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.