Insights / us
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.US06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.73%
P05–P95 span
19.72%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.61
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
-6.53%
Outer 90%
3/6(50%)
Middle 50%
1/6(17%)
Above median
1/6(17%)
Below median
5/6(83%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.73%P25: -1.52%P50: 0.73%P75: 3.28%P95: 13.98%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.