Insights / us
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.16%
P05–P95 span
10.21%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.69%
Outer 90%
0/10(0%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.39%P25: -1.21%P50: 0.16%P75: 2.17%P95: 6.82%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.