Insights / us
CCL
Carnival Corporation & plcUS05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.31%
P05–P95 span
11.40%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.05%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.43%P25: -3.09%P50: -0.31%P75: 1.61%P95: 4.97%
Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 19.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.